THE LATEST MARKET INSIGHTS FROM GILES

Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Bloomberg asks has oil a supply problem rather than a demand one?

Recently there has been an excellent piece on Bloomberg explaining why oil prices have been struggling due to supply issues, rather than demand issues. The logic in the article by Javier Blas has been that sanctions by Western countries on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela have not really worked. Instead the sanctions 

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Inflation data now key for the GBP

The Bank of England has to avoid two ditches. On one side of the road is the ditch of high inflation. With UK inflation over 10% and the core at 6.2% the BoE is trying to fight off deep rooted inflationary pressures, so it has to keep hiking rates. On the

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

CAD Inflation Key for the Bank of Canada Next Week

In their last rate meeting the Bank of Canada highlighted their confidence that inflation was falling. However, they did see that core inflation was stickier globally and that the service sector was showing persistent price pressures. See here for details on their last meeting. CAD reaction to Canadian inflation data from

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

The Bank of England’s Tough Decision on Thursday

On Thursday the Bank of England meet and they are faced with a tough decision. In an ideal world they want to be able to signal to markets that inflation is under control and that perhaps the BoE do not need to hike interest rates any more. The problem is that

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Bonds are back?

Well, at least that is the view of some fund managers in a recent Bloomberg article from JPMorgan, UBS, & Morgan Stanley who favour a move back into bonds now. Here is their logic.Firstly, they cite that high grade dollar bond yields exceed dividend yields of companies in the Morgan Stanley

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Is a Weaker USD Ahead?

Bloomberg recently wrote a helpul piece summarising reasons why professional investors think the USD may be weaker going forward. This is due to the Fed reaching the peak in their rate cycle, the strength of the yuan and the JPY, as well as potential de-dollarization trend that could accelerate over the

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

EURGBP in Focus Ahead of PMI’s

Early in the European session the euro and UK PMI’s are being released on Friday. This could present a good opportunity on the EURGBP pair if we see a divergence on the print between the two. The EURGBP has seen some falls this week already on increasing expectations that the BoE

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

The Stock Squeeze Setting up for May?

From a seasonal perspective stocks tend to do well in April. Over the last 25 years April has been the strongest month for the DAX, and the FTSE, as well as one of the strongest months of the year for the S&P500. So, April tends to be a great month for

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