THE LATEST MARKET INSIGHTS FROM GILES

Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Federal Reserve Focus: Exploring Potential Outcomes and Guidance

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has generated speculation about the central bank’s potential decisions regarding interest rates. Will they opt for a hike, a pause, or a hold? In this article, we delve into each option and provide insights into the possible outcomes and their implications. Fed Pause: Allowing Time for

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Candlestick chart patterns to be aware of: Dark cloud cover

In yesterday’s post we looked at the bullish piercing pattern. In today’s post we are looking at the bearish counterpart of the piercing pattern, namely the dark cloud cover pattern. Once again, like the piercing pattern, pay particularly close attention to the opening gap. It is key for seeing exuberant, last

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Candlestick chart patterns: The piercing pattern

Some candlestick price patterns are well known like shooting stars, hammer reversal bars, and engulfing bars. However, some of the less well known candlestick price patterns are worth noting for reading price charts. This is particularly helpful for when you are a managing a position on the longer term charts. Two

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

The U.S. debt ceiling is suspended, but long term challenges persist

A recent opinion piece in Bloomberg highlighted that the latest budget deal successfully suspended the debt ceiling, averting a potential debt default. However, it also pointed out that this measure does little to address the United States’ long-term fiscal challenges, as US deficits continue to accelerate. Escalating US debts According to

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

RBA surprises with 25 bps hike with potentially more to come

Going into the RBA meeting it was noted that investors should monitor any changes in rate hike expectations between the RBA and RBNZ for any opportunities in the AUDNZD. So, with the RBA hiking by a surprise 25 bps this added a further tailwind to the AUDNZD pair. It should also

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Analyzing the Impact of Saudi Arabia’s Production Cut on Oil Prices

Heading into the recent OPEC+ meeting, oil prices faced challenges primarily due to supply constraints rather than demand dynamics. In response, Saudi Arabia took proactive measures to address this issue by reducing its supply to 9 million bpd. Additionally, all other OPEC+ producers agreed to extend their earlier cuts until the

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Calculating the monthly move of the S&P500

Calculating the daily expected move of the S&P500 for the month aheadThe VIX is the so called ‘fear index’ that traders use to evaluate how concerned investors are. The VIX is an indicator of 30-day implied volatility from the use of S&P500 index options prices. The way it looks is like

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

FOMC Minutes: Fed keeps options open

With all the talks and drama surrounding the US debt ceiling it is easy to lose sight of what’s going on in terms of US rates. The latest STIR market pricing has a 66% chance that the Fed will be on hold in June. Powell has recently hinted at the possibility

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

US Core PCE will be crucial for the Fed this week

This week finishes off with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the shape of the USE PCE print. The PCE print refers to the measurement of personal consumption expenditures, which tracks the expenditure on goods and services by US citizens. Since around 2012, the PCE index has become the primary

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