THE LATEST MARKET INSIGHTS FROM GILES

Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Focus of the week

The RBA’s Inflation focus could move the AUD In the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (RBA) the RBA paused interest rates. However, they still signalled more interest rate hikes could be to come. What was the main concern that meant the RBA signalled there could be more hikes to come?

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Wednesday’s Fed meeting: Has terminal rate been reached?

That’s what markets want to know. Is the expected 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday the last hike in the current cycle from the Federal Reserve? Ever since the last weaker US CPI print on July 12 market’s have been turning more positive on risk in anticipation of an eventual turning

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Gold watch: What will drive gold prices from here?

Gold and silver both enjoyed a surge higher on the weak US CPI print from last Wednesday on July 12th as could be anticipated. The headline came in below expectations at 3%, but the core came in below the market’s minimum expectations at 4.8%. So, falling inflation data was the reason

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

US Retail sales: An insight into the state of the US economy

Just under three quarters of all US economic activity comes from consumer spending. US retails sales data contains evidence of around one third of that activity. So, this print can give a big hint at the overall state of the economy. However, the report does have a weakness in that it

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

US CPI: Set to move gold and silver markets

The US CPI print on Wednesday at 1330UK time sits in a light calendar week for US data. The CPI print is likely to draw significant attention tomorrow to see how the US is doing in their fight against inflation. Headline inflation expected to fall again. Over the last year headline

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

US oil: Is the bottom finally in?

To start the year analysts were optimistic about oil prices. China’s recovery from Covid was expected to boost demand, supply was expected to tighten in the second half of the year, and when Russia sent troops into Ukraine the sanctions imposed on them was expected to further reduce oil supply. However,

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

What all be the surprise from the RBNZ next week?

On Wednesday July 12th the RBNZ meet at 0300am UK time. In the last RBNZ meeting at the end of May the bank signalled that they have finished hiking interest rates. The RBNZ see inflation returning to 2% by the end of 2025 and this helped fuel a move higher in

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Analysis
Giles Coghlan

Gold eyes US labour data for next directional push

Labour data is viewed through an inflationary/deflationary lens right now. Although the Fed wants to ensure ‘maximum employment’, right now a labour market miss will be welcomed by the Fed as an inflationary fight win. The basic relationship between employment and inflation is explained via the Phillip’s curve below: When employment

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