According to Bloomberg Iranian production has hit a four year high in April and much of that oil Is ending up in China and being rebranded as originating in Malaysia. The IEA projected that Russian oil output would fall to 8.71 million barrels per day, but Russia produced nearly 11 million barrels per day in April. So, Iranian and Russian supply is still getting to market and that is why oil prices have remain pressured,
According to Goldman Sachs the latest IEA report held more bullish signs for oil. The IEA has revised its global demand growth forecast for 2023, increasing it by 100k BPD compared to the previous report. Goldman saw the report in contrast to the current market pessimism with the IEA anticipating tighter market balances in the second half of the year and highlighted China’s demand recovery exceeding expectations.
Bloomberg points out that the combined demand of China and India (21).
Oil’s recent dips may well be the last before a summer surge if the US avoids a hard landing. From a technical perspective as long as key support holds on the monthly chart that keeps the outlook alive for buyers.