Expectancy vs Risk/Reward

This is a really important topic as expectancy is an important factor in trading when assessing your risk. Risk reward is a straight forward topic and most traders are very familiar with the concept.  However, what is expectancy? In short, expectancy is the likelihood of an event happening. So, let’s have a simple example. The expectancy of the sun rising tomorrow.

The expectancy of a sun rise

If someone says to you, ‘what are the probabilistic chances of the sun rising tomorrow?’ What would you say? Well, I would say the chances are very, very high. Our expectancy that the sun will rise again tomorrow is high. Therefore, would we be prepared to risk £1000 to make only £20 on that wager? The answer would most likely be ‘yes’! Now from a strictly ‘risk vs reward’ scenario the wager does not make sense at all! I am risking £1000 to only make £20. That is a rubbish risk vs reward wager! However, when you factor in the probability of the sun rising again tomorrow it makes sense from an expectancy point of view. What are the chances of the sun rising tomorrow? It has got to be 99.999% right? Now, for the sake of argument, let’s just say that the expectancy of the sun rising tomorrow is a mere 99% chance. From an expectancy point of view it still makes sense. The risk vs reward is terrible, but the expectancy is positive. This means the wager makes sense mathematically. Here is the calculation I use when I am working out expectancy. See below: 

How this applies to trading 

So, this means if you think an event has a very high probability of occurring then you don’t need a positive risk vs reward scenario. Now, the ideal is that you have both, but you don’t have to. You just need to correctly assess the probability of an event occurring. Now, that can be trickier than it sounds, as how do you accurately assess whether something has a 60% chance of happening vs a 65% chance? This can involve shades of grey. However, if you lean towards the side of caution then that should mean you keep the odds in your favour. This is a concept that we can cover in more depth in my daily webinars. 

32 thoughts on “Expectancy vs Risk/Reward”

  1. Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?

  2. ремонт квартир с материалами под ключ [url=https://remont-kvartir-pod-klyuch-1.ru/]ремонт квартир с материалами под ключ[/url] .

  3. (4) Magnolini, R., Falcato, L., Cremonesi, A., Schori, D., & Bruggmann, P.
    (2022, July 17). Faux anabolic androgenic steroids on the black market
    – a scientific evaluation and meta-analysis on qualitative and quantitative analytical
    outcomes found throughout the literature. Although ladies have a fraction of the testosterone in comparability with males,
    it stays an important hormone in their physique chemistry.
    In clenbuterol’s case, as a end result of it doesn’t affect the hypothalamic-pituitary-testicular axis (HPTA) but instead the central nervous system,
    girls usually take a similar dose to men. Firstly, a person can gauge their
    sensitivity to clenbuterol by starting on a low dose and growing it steadily.

    The second group, which took the next dose of 40 mg,
    skilled a 33% decrease in HDL whereas elevating LDL levels by roughly 30%.

    Men who received 80 mg of Anavar per day experienced a 50% decline in HDL
    levels. In one study, males with HIV received 20 mg of Anavar
    per day for 12 weeks.
    Most cycles will make the most of testosterone past the
    8-week Anavar cycle length, extending to 12 weeks with testosterone earlier than starting post-cycle therapy.
    Nevertheless, more superior users will go further than this,
    using a number of other compounds at performance-enhancing doses alongside
    Anavar. This is a helpful technique, significantly for
    cutting and shredding (where Anavar excels). However, it’s not doubtless
    to be used in pure bulking cycles as a end result of
    there’s a limit to just how high your dose of
    Anavar should be before health dangers kick in. Oxandrolone was no doubt
    decided to be a mild anabolic steroid means back then, which made it possible to be tolerated by female and baby patients10.

    This steroid has many benefits that make it engaging to customers who want to cut fat without dropping muscle mass.
    Anavar works by stimulating lipolysis (fat burning) whereas preserving lean muscle mass
    and tissue in the process.
    Nonetheless, the specific dosage and frequency of use will
    depend upon particular person components such as experience, goals, and tolerance.
    It Is necessary to note that Anavar should not be taken for longer than eight weeks, as it could result in liver toxicity.
    Also, it is essential to take a break of a minimal of four weeks earlier than beginning one
    other Anavar cycle to avoid long-term injury
    to the liver and different organs.
    One Other benefit of utilizing Anavar for chopping is that it helps to extend your energy and endurance.

    This means you presumably can work out more durable and longer,
    which is able to help you burn more energy and build extra muscle.

    Anavar itself is derived from DHT (dihydrotestosterone),
    with some slight alterations to the structure of the hormone.
    As A End Result Of it is a DHT steroid, it
    can result in head hair loss in male users who are already genetically predisposed to
    male sample baldness.
    5mg per day is understood to be nicely tolerated in medical use by many female sufferers.
    If a girl tolerates this dose well, the following step is 10mg; many will find 10mg day
    by day to be the perfect balance. Nonetheless, quite so much of ladies confidently use 15
    or even 20mg every day, which will enormously increase the possibility of virilizing side effects.

    Differentiating between sensible and harmful steroid usage calls for knowledgeable information concerning the anavar steroids for sale cycle dosage.
    This is the stability that ensures you notice its potential
    without jeopardizing your health. Therefore, it’s essential to understand correct dosages
    whether or not you aim for chopping cycles, mixed
    cycles, or if you are a lady venturing into bodybuilding.

    Contemplating its energy, it’s incumbent upon customers to
    put it to use judiciously to keep away from detrimental
    outcomes.
    For younger users, their pure ability to recuperate might permit greater dosages and
    longer cycle lengths than older users. However, this does
    not imply a scarcity of careful monitoring and managed consumption,
    as misuse carries substantial risks. On the other
    hand, older users, notably those above 40, might favor shorter cycle durations and minimal dosages, considering the augmented danger of issues linked to aging.

    Age indeed plays a vital function in figuring out an Oxandrolone
    cycle’s efficacy and potential unwanted side effects.
    A strengthening regimen’s dosage and cycle duration are sometimes set according to the individual’s sporting
    calendar. Past the cycle, an acceptable recovery plan that includes adequate
    nutrition and rest is as crucial as steroid administration.
    This strategy seeks to maximize efficiency enhancement whereas probably counterbalancing opposed effects from using stronger substances.

    Typically, Oxandrolone is combined with other anabolic steroids to complement and magnify the benefits of every component.

    The cycle size usually ranges between four to six weeks, with
    a day by day dosage of around 5-20mg. Women should gauge their body’s response and promptly tackle any opposed side effects.
    Constant vigilance and communication with healthcare professionals are important to making sure secure and
    effective use. Scientifically termed Oxandrolone,
    anavar results after 2 weeks is a synthetic anabolic steroid by-product of dihydrotestosterone (DHT).

    Nitrogen is a key component of protein, which is important for muscle development.
    By increasing nitrogen retention, Anavar helps to make sure
    that your muscles have all of the nutrients they should develop larger and stronger.
    All The Time avoid high dose and long-term use of anavar and winstrol cycle dosage to get simpler results with minimum unwanted side effects.
    According to specialists at Gratitude Lodge, maintaining even hormone ranges
    is essential to reducing stress on the liver and minimizing side effects.
    High doses of Anavar give me again pumps and jaw pumps as
    if I am chewing powerful meat like beef jerky. I by no means do over forty mg
    on orals because again pumps are annoying, and by no means greater than four weeks.
    I’ve been on 60 mg break up over three instances a day for
    four weeks, and I’m getting some decrease back pain, abdomen pain, and a very dark yellowish urine.

  4. The effects of oxandrolone on the growth hormone and gonadal axes in boys with constitutional
    delay of progress and puberty. Moreover, if an individual
    has skilled gynecomastia, this is a sign that the substance is Dianabol (42).
    These are a variety of the issues bodybuilders who go to our clinic face
    when buying UGL Anavar.
    Nevertheless, we find this to be a smaller share in comparison with other C17-aa steroids.
    Anavar binds to the Androgen Receptors (ARs) of the muscle cells
    and stimulates protein synthesis, which will increase muscle development, lean body mass, and bone mineral density.
    Thus should you stay in Thailand, you’re free to purchase anavar legally.

    Nonetheless, if a man utilizes an Anavar-only cycle, taking
    certainly one of these PCT medication alone is likely to be greater than enough in restoring endogenous testosterone manufacturing promptly.
    When Anavar was initially released available on the market, a
    general dose of 5–10 mg per day was frequent.
    However, athletes and bodybuilders usually take 15–25 mg per
    day. When Anavar (oxandrolone) was first produced, it was legal to purchase for
    bodybuilding purposes. Docs would prescribe it to folks wanting bigger muscular tissues,
    more energy, or to burn off excess fat. There are certain shampoos that
    block DHT on the follicular level. This is the
    less effective of the two choices, in our experience.

    This cycle is usually solely utilized by males due to testosterone inflicting virilization unwanted
    effects in women. When adopting a dosage of 10 mg/day for
    five weeks, the risk of creating masculinizing
    unwanted facet effects may be lower as a end result of modest
    dose and shorter cycle period. I even have bought 10mg anavar from Rohm labs and planning on doing a 4/5 week
    cycle. I am in shape and have been training for years, my
    food regimen is clean additionally.
    ALL anabolic steroids will shut down testosterone ranges to completely different extents.
    How a lot you’ll be shut you down will range, depending on which steroid you’re
    taking. It’s subsequently not advocate if gaining mass, measurement and strength is the primary priority.
    For women anavar cycle length users (14) it’s
    suggested to start out on a lot lower quantities. The Anavar cycle may even be shorter (4-6 weeks) compared to the male cycle
    which may doubtlessly last for up to sixteen weeks.
    Like the lads (see above) the dosages may be elevated, though not as excessive, for instance 20mg
    per day could be at a peak stage earlier than pulling the again all the method down to cycle off.
    In our expertise, customers don’t typically expertise vital
    physiological or psychological decline from Anavar, unlike other anabolic steroids.

    Users’ genetic makeup will determine the extent of hair loss they’ll experience.
    Or, extra particularly, how delicate they are to dihydrotestosterone.
    There isn’t a vast amount of information relating to
    the relationship between anabolic steroid use and kidney harm.
    Thus, if a user has poor renal well being, Anavar must be
    avoided. The second group, which took a higher dose of
    forty mg, experienced a 33% decrease in HDL while
    elevating LDL ranges by roughly 30%.
    A TUDCA dosage of 500 mg/day has been proven to enhance hepatic well being in scientific literature (14).
    Nevertheless, liver deterioration stays possible from Anavar even when taking liver assist supplements.
    To scale back this threat, users can decrease their saturated fats and salt consumption to improve ldl cholesterol
    ratios and blood viscosity. It replicates the fat-burning and
    muscle-building effects of Anavar, but with none unwanted unwanted side
    effects. Furthermore, resistance coaching enhances
    fats loss throughout Anavar supplementation because of
    elevated resting power expenditure.
    If however you may have a lot of training expertise, and are competing for a present and trying to gain every advantage you
    can then for these type of individuals it might be price considering.
    The same could be mentioned with Anavar or any other efficiency enhancing drug, there
    are benefits however as we’ve mentioned there are dangers too.
    As i’m positive you’re conscious there are tons of of various varieties of steroids out
    there apart from Anavar. It accommodates 150mg in each tablet (which
    makes up 450mg every day). To put this into perspective, a table spoon of soy protein powder will solely
    weigh approx 18g.
    Whilst they may look similar and share very related results some may be more potent than others and side effects do vary relying on dose, frequency, cycle size, and so forth.
    You can sort Anavar into a google search engine and be flooded with completely different
    Anavar products, whether the unlawful versions or the Anavar alternate options.
    It can be exhausting to know who to belief and where to
    buy from as there are a lot of con artists, and placebo pills that don’t include
    what you assume you’re paying for. There are some testimonials on-line of customers experiencing spectacular transformations from using
    these legal steroids. Lazar’s before/after (above) is an effective example of an ‘anavar transformation’.
    I’m not saying Lazar 100% took anavar, however when you food plan hard and work your butt off, these outcomes are typical
    of somebody taking anavar for eight weeks.

  5. Pharmaceutical researchers are eager on investigating
    the therapeutic effects of TB-500 in situations like
    Crohn’s illness and ulcerative colitis. Medical trials have shown that TB-500 can stimulate endothelial cells’ development and improve
    blood vessel formation, essential for selling tissue regeneration within the gastrointestinal tract.
    This peptide has opened up new avenues for enhancing gut well
    being by strengthening the intestinal barrier operate and
    selling tissue restoration. BPC-157 and TB-500 are
    two compounds with highly effective bioactive properties
    which have been found to have a big influence on the immune system.
    One of the primary advantages of BPC-157 is its ability to accelerate wound healing and tissue repair, which not
    directly helps immune perform by selling sooner restoration.
    The distinctive chemical compositions of TB-500
    and BPC-157 allow them to interact with numerous cellular parts, facilitating tissue regeneration and stimulating the development of blood
    vessels. TB-500 primarily capabilities by encouraging cell
    migration and differentiation, that are important processes for wound therapeutic.
    These peptides operate by instigating cell migration, proliferation, and differentiation,
    thereby expediting the repair of impaired tissues.
    TB-500, or Thymosin Beta-4, is a peptide widely known for promoting tissue repair and muscle
    regeneration.
    The pricing of TB-500 is topic to variation, usually correlating with the quality of
    the product and the quantity purchased. When looking for to acquire
    TB-500, it is suggested to pick out respected sources that emphasize quality and safety standards.
    Licensed laboratories and established online vendors present
    assurance regarding the authenticity of the product
    and adherence to regulatory necessities. These sources adhere
    to stringent quality management protocols to guarantee the effectiveness and purity of TB-500.
    The availability of peptides similar to TB500 and BPC157 exhibits notable variability, with certain sources demonstrating greater reliability than others.
    Though these peptides can be procured through reliable channels, there exists a prevalence of
    black-market options that present considerable dangers attributable to the
    absence of regulation.
    By referencing these authoritative sources, people can access reliable information on the classification, synthesis,
    and functions of peptides in health and drugs.
    The efficacy of these peptides lies of their capability to speed up tissue restore, reduce irritation, and
    promote total healing processes in the physique. Relating To
    wound healing, these peptides work by stimulating angiogenesis, the formation of recent blood vessels, which is essential for delivering oxygen and
    nutrients to the positioning of damage. In distinction, TB-500 contributes to musculoskeletal healing in experimental
    fashions by enhancing cytoskeletal organization—the mobile
    framework important for movement and structural integrity15.
    Analysis demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting stem cell migration and differentiation, probably accelerating tissue
    transforming in fashions of traumatic injury. It increases the expression of vascular
    endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2), which enhances blood vessel formation in broken tissues2.

    These research indicate that the peptide is well-tolerated and exhibits no toxicity, even at massive doses [44].

    When comparing the security and unwanted side effects of TB-500 vs BPC-157, it is essential to observe that solely TB-500 has been extensively
    clinically studied. Plus, we will also share particulars about probably the most reputable distributors of research peptides together with
    TB-500 and BPC-157. In this information, our skilled staff will define
    the research functions and unwanted aspect effects of TB-500 and BPC-157, analyzing how both have been administered in past studies.
    ResearchPeptides.org follows the strictest sourcing pointers within the health and nootropics
    trade. Our focus is to solely hyperlink to peer-reviewed research found on revered websites, like PubMed.

    It has been a subject of in depth research and clinical trials geared toward
    investigating its therapeutic capabilities and neuroprotective advantages.
    In conclusion, while BPC 157 and TB 500 are wonderful peptides for healing and restoration, they serve barely
    different functions and work via distinct mechanisms.
    BPC 157 excels at intestine health and tendon/ligament repair,
    whereas TB 500 is particularly efficient for muscle regeneration and adaptability enchancment.

    In the realm of veterinary medication, TB-500 is utilized
    to help in the recuperation of musculoskeletal injuries in animals, significantly in equines and canines.

    By fostering tissue mending, it aids within the management of situations
    similar to tendon strains, ligament injuries, and articular points.
    Thymosin Beta four, commonly referred to as TB-500, is a peptide that originates
    from the naturally-occurring thymosin hormone. On the other hand,
    Physique Protection Compound 157, abbreviated as BPC-157, is an artificial peptide
    that imitates a piece of a protein present within the abdomen. Conversely, BPC157 is broadly known for its gastroprotective and anti-inflammatory attributes, rendering it
    an acceptable possibility for individuals grappling with gastrointestinal considerations or
    needing overall tissue rejuvenation. The appropriate utilization of peptides
    such as TB500 and BPC157 regularly entails meticulous laboratory-grade injections to
    ensure security and efficacy.
    This peptide is believed to work by promoting angiogenesis, which is the formation of new blood vessels, and facilitating cell migration to the positioning
    of harm. The Ultimate Healing Combination TB-500 is particularly essential for
    promoting angiogenesis, the formation of recent blood vessels.
    This helps ship oxygen and vitamins to injured tissues, rushing up the therapeutic process.
    By stimulating numerous development factors and promoting angiogenesis, these peptides help within the regeneration of tissues and may significantly enhance restoration instances post-injury.
    Their capability to modulate the immune response and regulate cytokine ranges helps
    in controlling irritation successfully. Furthermore,
    each peptides have proven potential benefits for
    angiogenesis, the restoration of muscle accidents, and wound therapeutic.

    This multifaceted peptide has exhibited promising outcomes in stimulating the event
    of recent blood vessels, a crucial course of in the delivery of oxygen and nutrients to tissues.
    It performs a crucial function in tissue restoration and regeneration, rendering it
    a priceless asset in expediting the healing processes.
    Moreover, its neuroprotective characteristics have generated interest in potential makes use of for neurological circumstances.
    BPC 157 is a synthetic peptide derived from protective mechanisms within the physique, recognized for regenerative properties.
    Research explore its function in most cancers restoration, blood pressure regulation, and cognitive
    function.

    References:

    https://neurotrauma.world

  6. BPC-157 peptide is widely known for its healing and
    regenerative properties. This synthetic peptide is derived from a protein discovered within the abdomen, and it really works all through the physique
    to repair tissues, improve gut well being, and scale back irritation. Many medical professionals and patients use BPC-157 peptide therapy for sooner restoration and better overall well being.
    It is a peptide that has been studied for its potential to promote tissue therapeutic and scale back inflammation. While some athletes and bodybuilders might use BPC 157 in the hope of bettering recovery and performance, its direct impact on athletic performance
    is not well-established.
    Researchers usually supply BPC 157 from respected suppliers specializing
    in peptides for scientific use. And if you want
    a fully-vetted physician to assist information you on your journey
    with peptides, visit MensHealthcare.com to get connected with a physician right now.
    Also…watch out for the e-book on peptides I’m releasing with biochemist Nick
    Andrews round Q1 2020. One peptide I extremely suggest dosing alongside BPC-157
    is TB500, the artificial version of a naturally occurring peptide within the thymus gland referred to
    as Thymosin Beta four. BPC-157 is a cytoprotective compound,
    which means it may possibly shield cells from international and/or
    harmful brokers. As acknowledged earlier than, BPC-157’s main mechanism of motion is
    the promotion of angiogenesis.
    Whether you’re recovering from a torn rotator cuff, recurring hamstring pressure, or patellar tendonitis, BPC‑157 could help accelerate therapeutic
    on the root stage. This is particularly necessary for tendon and ligament injuries, which generally heal slowly
    because of poor blood supply. The Wilson et al.

    (2019) evaluate that Huberman references discovered BPC-157 showed “consistently optimistic and immediate healing effects” for these tough-to-heal tissues.
    Research like Hsieh et al. (2020) confirmed this mechanism, showing BPC-157
    prompts the Src-Caveolin-1-eNOS pathway.
    You’re a Stanford neuroscientist with chronic lower again pain that just won’t stop.
    Then, after just two injections of an experimental peptide,
    the pain vanishes completely. If you want to accelerate healing, reduce inflammation, or enhance muscle restore, getting a personalised peptide plan is the smartest transfer you can even make.

    The peptide compound may even be used to assist
    restore bone and joint damage, making it an effective remedy for athletes and
    aging adults needing to boost the healing process and accelerate recovery time.

    And those are only a few advantages that adults can expertise from utilizing BPC-157 in their peptide remedy.
    With so many individuals seeing the advantages of peptide remedy, new
    peptide compounds are being created every day to help enhance one’s total well being.
    Sometimes, most synthetic peptides primarily give consideration to muscle development
    and fat reduction. Nevertheless, if you’re in search of a peptide to promote accelerated healing and recovery, there are still a couple of compounds to select from, and some of the well-liked so far is the peptide compound BPC-157.

    These mechanisms are pivotal in elucidating the role
    of BPC-157 within the healing course of. Angiogenesis, the method of
    forming new blood vessels, enhances blood circulation to the affected web
    site, thereby facilitating the transportation of important nutrients and
    oxygen required for tissue repair.
    Nevertheless, because of its lower efficiency, customers
    may require higher doses or longer durations to see results.

    Injections, while more expensive initially, ship stronger
    results and will cut back the general treatment timeline—potentially offsetting the higher cost.
    Selecting the proper technique is decided by your finances,
    goals, and luxury degree with administration. As A Result Of oral absorption is limited and inconsistent—especially in individuals with leaky gut or
    digestive inflammation—results may vary. Still, oral BPC-157 is often a handy choice for maintenance or mild digestive assist.
    Much of the peptide is broken down throughout digestion, which limits
    how much reaches the bloodstream.
    Human clinical trials are scarce, so for finest research quality it’s finest to buy BPC-157 from trusted suppliers like Loti Labs
    who assure the peptide’s purity and efficiency meet lab requirements.
    BPC 157 capsules are analysis peptides created from a pure protein found in human gastric juice.
    BPC 157, the physique protection compound, is a 15-amino acid synthetic peptide
    modeled after a fragment of a protein in stomach acid.
    Since it’s a naturally occurring compound, studies show
    it could help with tissue restore and intestine well being in cell and animal models.

    After incubation at 37 °C in a humidified ambiance
    of 5% CO2/95% air for 1, 2 and three days, cells had been collected for evaluation of the expression of progress hormone receptors by RT
    PCR and Western blotting. Development hormone increased the PCNA
    gene expression in BPC 157-treated tendon fibroblasts.
    Tendon fibroblasts at 50%–60% confluency had been pretreated with BPC
    157 at concentrations of zero, 0.1, 0.25, zero.5 μg/mL for 24 h (A) or 0.5
    μg/mL for one to three days (B). After BPC 157 pretreatment, zero.1 μg/mL development hormone
    was added for another 24 h after which the PCNA gene expression was analyzed by RT/real-time PCR.
    BPC 157 for ladies is a cutting-edge therapy for anti-aging, and it has quite
    a lot of advantages that few different therapies can examine with.
    For example, this substance could be very
    helpful in the realm of mobile restore, particularly when repairing tendons
    and injuries within the body. Collagen is crucial as
    a result of it acts as scaffolding for many of the cells in your physique, particularly the cells that make up your tendons, ligaments, and skin.
    Nonetheless, it ought to be noted that totally different peptides of different specs have different dosages, and the antibacterial water required for peptide reconstitution needs to
    be recalculated before reconstitution. Earlier Than reconstructing 5mg
    BPC 157 lyophilized vial, we want to understand how much antibacterial water
    is required in the course of the reconstitution process.

    For the comfort of calculation, we will combine 5ml of antibacterial water with
    5mg BPC 157, which is handy for administration, the
    place every 0.25ml BPC 157 injection incorporates 250 mcg
    BPC-157. ①Because the injection method requires
    a needle, the needle will cause discomfort, pain and worry to many sufferers.
    BPC-157 can bypass the digestive system and instantly attain the blood
    by way of injection, making certain the bioavailability of BPC-157
    and rising the therapeutic effect.
    By supporting collagen synthesis and decreasing inflammation, BPC-157
    has gained traction as an anti-aging agent. While oral BPC‑157 supplements
    are available, bioavailability is questionable. Research displaying robust regenerative
    results have used injectable varieties, especially for connective tissue
    therapeutic. Though not the first use case, BPC‑157 has also demonstrated neuroprotective
    effects in animal models—helping regenerate nerves, reduce ache sensitivity, and restore locomotor operate.
    Animal studies show BPC‑157 helps shield joint cartilage and connective tissues under
    mechanical stress. It reduces pro-inflammatory cytokines like TNF‑α and IL‑6 while enhancing structural repair.
    BPC‑157 isn’t just theoretical—it’s one of the most clinically promising peptides
    in relation to musculoskeletal regeneration.

Leave a Comment