Analysis

Key focus this week will be on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI print.Recently there has been a divergence between expectations for US manufacturing and US services as the US has a disjointed post Covid recovery. The last US ISM Non Manufacturing print showed a surprise print higher over 55 for January which was well up … Read more

Around the Autumn of last year the UK bond market was in a crisis. The cost of living, energy price surges, uncoated tax cuts announced by the Gov’t, sent the UK bond market into free fall as investors couldn’t sell UK debt quick enough. With interest rates looking like they were about to soar it … Read more

The interest rate for the SNB is at 1.00% and the SNB are not due to meet until March 23. So, what’s the picture with the CHF? Expectations for the Swiss Franc at the next SNB meeting Short Term Interest Markets are expecting a 50bps rate hike at the March meeting, The terminal rate is … Read more

Core PCE in focus! What’s the trade? The PCE print is the personal consumption expenditures print that measures the spending of goods and services by the citizens of the United States. Around 2012 the PCE index became the main inflation index used by the Federal Reserve to inform their policy decisions. The PCE Price Index … Read more

In the last RBNZ meeting on February 22 markets were expecting a 50 bps rate hike. The surge in inflation had shown some signs of topping with January’s print coming in the same aster prior. The QoQ reading was at 1.4% for January which was at the lower end of the recent range. However, the … Read more

At the last BoC interest rate meeting it became clear that the BoC may have now had their very last rate hike for this year. Headline inflation fell from June’s peak of 6.2% last year and December’s inflation print was at 5.4%. Short Term Interest Rate markets are no longer pricing two rate cuts into … Read more

It’s possible. On Wednesday the Fed took a marked shift in tone from the December meeting. The Fed hiked by 25bps as expected, but it was always going to be the forward guidance that mattered with this decision. Would the Fed push back against STIR markets which saw a terminal rate sub 5% and two … Read more

What to look for from the Fed this week. This is the time where the two competing narratives over the Fed’s path of rates get to to test each other. STIR markets have been pricing in two rate cuts this year. However, the Fed’s communication has been that there needs to be more work done … Read more

It was Australia’s inflation data this week that raises expectations for a more aggressive RBA. All the inflation metrics beat across the board and both the trimmed mean and weighted median printed above market’s maximum expectations. See here for the prints from Financial Source’s calendar: The headline figure for Q4 2022 rose to 7.8% from … Read more