GILES COGHLAN

GILES COGHLAN

The Big Questions Around Inflation, Recession, Banking Contagion, and Fed Rates

by

Inflation

The growing view is that the banking crisis from Silicon Vally Bank and Credit Suisse is going to be a big deflationary force. Credit will be much scarcer from here on in and that should help the Fed bring down inflation and across the world. Higher prices are going to be much tougher if credit is harder to come by. The current credit crunch typically precedes a recession. A US recession seems more likely today than it did 10 days ago.

Fed rates focus

When the Fed meet on Wednesday there is a growing expectation that they will either hike by 25bps or pause rates. The market will want to see whether the Fed will adjust their policy moving forward. Will they hint at the prospect of rate cuts this year? US interest rates are currently at 4.625%, but Short Term Interest Rate markets currently see the Fed cutting by 100bps by the end of the year. Is this projection going to be confirmed by the Fed on Wednesday or will they maintain higher rates to bring down inflation? What’s the message going to be? Some kind of recognition of the present conditions seems unavoidable, but expect big volatility on Wednesday over the meeting.

Banking contagion fears

The Fed balance sheet rose by nearly $300 billion last week as it took the largest jump higher since the Covid pandemic began. Financial institutions are grabbing short term loans from the Fed as liquidity fades and confidence fears grow
It may be tempting to see the Fed cutting rates as the salve to heal the banking crisis wound. However, Gerard Macdonell, the senior manager at 22V Research LLC in New York point out that, ‘It is not at all clear that avoiding a rate hike would even help the financial troubles in the banking system’.

Summary

The prospect of a hard landing has just increased over the last 10 days. Major support for US stocks sits around the 3700 region. Note the 200EMA on the Weekly chart as a crucial support level that will need to hold to keep bullish hoped alive for the S&P500.

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  14. Progress in Weeks: Anavar Effectiveness Through Before/After Photos

    Week‑by‑Week Anavar Journey – From First Shot to Final Result

    Seeing the Change: Anavar Outcomes Illustrated Each Week

    Before & After: Anavar Results Showcased Every Week

    An eight‑week Anavar cycle is a popular choice for bodybuilders and fitness enthusiasts looking to refine
    muscle definition while maintaining a lean physique.
    The results of such a program can be traced through a week‑by‑week
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    Prior to starting an anavar 10mg results cycle, most users are already engaged in structured resistance training and follow a balanced diet aimed at
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    to build the anabolic stimulus that Anavar will provide.

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    Anavar Results: Before & After Pics (Week by
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    Week 1: The first few days of cycling often bring a noticeable increase in strength—especially during compound movements like squats and bench presses.
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    slight improvements in muscle fullness after workouts due to the anabolic effects
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    reduction in visceral fat coupled with increased muscle density results in a flatter stomach when photographed at
    rest.

    Week 6: By week six, strength gains plateau slightly but muscle endurance continues
    to rise. Photos taken after workouts show increased vascularity across the
    arms and legs. The user’s physique is visibly
    leaner, and the overall aesthetic has shifted from bulky to refined.

    Week 7: Nearing the end of the cycle, users often notice a final push in muscle
    definition. Fine lines around the neck and jawline become less prominent due to decreased
    water retention. Comparisons between week one and week seven images highlight a more tapered waist and enhanced muscle separation across all major groups.

    Week 8: The culmination of an eight‑week Anavar cycle typically results in a dramatic
    transformation. Photos reveal a lean, highly defined physique with noticeable striations on the arms
    and calves. Muscle mass has increased while body fat has
    dropped, providing a clear visual representation of the anabolic benefits delivered
    by the steroid over this period.

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    Anavar Results Timeline

    Day 1‑7: Initial strength lift; minimal visible change but improved
    recovery.

    Week 2: Reduction in water retention; first signs of muscle firmness.

    Week 3: Clearer definition in thighs and calves; increased training volume possible.

    Week 4: Peak lean mass gains; overall body composition becomes more
    sculpted.

    Week 5: Noticeable abdominal improvement;
    flatter stomach appearance.

    Week 6: Strength plateau, endurance rise; vascularity
    increases across limbs.

    Week 7: Final push in muscle definition; tapering
    waist and reduced facial puffiness.

    Week 8: Dramatic transformation with heightened definition, visible striations, and lean mass increase.

    By following this structured eight‑week plan,
    users can anticipate a progressive series of gains that are both measurable and
    visually striking. The key to maximizing these results lies in consistent training, precise nutrition, adequate
    hydration, and sufficient rest—factors that
    complement the anabolic action of Anavar and ensure each
    week’s progress builds toward a final physique that showcases
    strength, definition, and lean muscle mass.

  15. Anavar, also known by its generic name oxandrolone, is a synthetic anabolic
    steroid that has been used in medical settings for decades to help patients regain weight after surgery or trauma, as well
    as to treat various muscle-wasting conditions. Its popularity in the bodybuilding community stems from its
    reputation as one of the gentlest steroids on the market,
    offering modest gains in lean muscle mass while keeping water retention and androgenic side effects relatively low.
    When athletes and fitness enthusiasts refer to
    a 10 mg dosage, they are typically speaking about daily oral intake, which is
    considered a moderate dose for most users. This level can produce noticeable improvements in strength and definition over several weeks, especially when combined with a
    carefully planned diet and training program.

    Anavar 10

    The 10‑milligram per day protocol has become a staple among bodybuilders who want to add muscle without the
    drastic side effects that come from higher doses or more potent compounds.

    Users often cycle Anavar for four to six weeks before taking
    a break, allowing the body to recover and reducing the risk of estrogenic
    side effects, even though oxandrolone is not aromatizable.
    The main benefits reported at this dose include increased protein synthesis, improved nitrogen retention,
    and a boost in glycogen storage within muscle cells. These physiological changes translate into
    faster recovery times, better endurance during
    workouts, and a subtle increase in muscle density.
    Because the dosage is relatively low, the likelihood of experiencing gynecomastia or significant liver strain is markedly diminished compared to
    other anabolic agents.

    The user experience at 10 mg typically involves
    mild mood elevation and an overall sense of well‑being
    that can enhance training motivation. Some users note a slight rise in libido,
    but this effect is usually moderate and not accompanied by the intense
    hormonal fluctuations seen with higher steroid doses. The risk of androgenic side effects such as acne or hair loss remains low at
    10 mg; however, individuals with a genetic predisposition to these conditions may still observe mild symptoms.
    In women, this dose can be used cautiously for body recomposition goals, but
    caution is advised due to the potential for virilization when taken in excess.

    Winstrol 50

    Winstrol, or stanozolol, represents a different class
    of anabolic steroids that are known for their potent muscle-building properties and ability to promote fat loss.

    The 50‑milligram daily dose is commonly used by bodybuilders
    during cutting phases, where the goal is to preserve lean mass while shedding excess fat.

    Unlike Anavar, Winstrol is more aggressive in its effects on protein synthesis and has a higher risk of liver toxicity because it is taken orally in a form that requires
    hepatic processing. Users report increased strength gains within weeks, but also an elevated chance of experiencing side effects such as
    joint discomfort, dry skin, and elevated cholesterol levels.

    The 50‑mg dosage schedule often involves cycling Winstrol
    for four to six weeks followed by a rest period to allow the liver to recover.
    This approach helps mitigate some of the hepatotoxicity associated with stanozolol.

    Because Winstrol is not aromatizable, estrogenic side effects such as water retention or gynecomastia are generally absent, making it popular among athletes who want a leaner physique without bloating.
    However, users must monitor liver enzymes
    regularly and may need to adjust the dosage or duration based on their
    tolerance.

    Drug Description

    Oxandrolone (Anavar) is a synthetic
    derivative of dihydrotestosterone that was originally developed for medical purposes such as treating weight loss after surgery or illness.
    It functions by binding to androgen receptors in muscle tissue, thereby enhancing protein synthesis and nitrogen retention. Its mild anabolic activity makes it suitable for use in both men and women, though
    dosage adjustments are often necessary for female users to avoid virilization. Oxandrolone is metabolized primarily through
    the liver but does not convert into estrogenic compounds,
    which reduces the risk of water retention and gynecomastia.

    Stanozolol (Winstrol) was first synthesized in the 1960s and has since become a staple in sports performance enhancement
    due to its high anabolic-to-androgenic ratio. It works by stimulating protein synthesis while
    also promoting nitrogen retention, leading to rapid increases in muscle
    hardness and density. The oral form of stanozolol requires hepatic metabolism, which can place
    strain on liver function over prolonged use. Despite this
    risk, Winstrol remains popular for cutting cycles because it does not cause significant water retention or estrogenic side effects.

    Both compounds are classified as controlled substances
    in many jurisdictions, and their use is regulated by
    medical professionals or banned sports organizations.
    When considering a 10‑mg Anavar cycle or a 50‑mg Winstrol regimen, individuals should weigh
    the potential performance benefits against the health risks, monitor liver
    function tests regularly, and consult with healthcare providers to ensure safe usage.

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