Labour data is viewed through an inflationary/deflationary lens right now. Although the Fed wants to ensure ‘maximum employment’, right now a labour market miss will be welcomed by the Fed as an inflationary fight win. The basic relationship between employment and inflation is explained via the Phillip’s curve below:
When employment is ‘tight’ (good) then workers can demand higher wages and that can fuel inflation. When employment is ‘loose’ (bad) then employers have more labour choice to choose from and that can result in lower wages which is deflationary.
The impact on gold
The reason gold is so pushed and pulled around by the narrative is due to the impact of the USD, yields, and inflation on the rate for gold. If you push and pull on any one of those inputs then gold’s price is influenced too. Check out this piece on the four things to know about trading gold to find out more.
So, for the labour data on Friday this is what can be expected.
If the headline print comes in below 110K (minimum expectations) and the hourly earnings below 4.2% with the unemployment rate above 3.8% then gold and silver should surge higher. Why? Because that loosening of teh labour market will signal to the Fed that they may not need to hike rates twice and the impact of the previous rate hikes are working. This should result in US yields falling and the USD falling which is a natural boost for gold and silver.
Gold technicals
Support for gold sits at $1900 and the descending trend line marked would be an obvious place for buyers to step if we saw a break higher on weak jobs data.
