Analysis

Heading into last week’s ECB meeting there was speculation that the ECB’s flagged 50bps rate hike would not go ahead. Why? Well, it was the worries over potential contagion fro European banks over the loss of confidence in Credit Suisse that was circulating strongly on Wednesday last week. However, the SNB secured liquidity from the … Read more

Next week the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all meet. This time last week the SVB crisis was just dropping onto markets and since that time the decision for central banks has just got a lot harder. The fall out from the Credit Suisse crisis on Wednesday just underscored the difficulty … Read more

In the space of just a few days the interest rate pricing for central banks across the world has rapidly fallen due to the SVB crisis. The fears of contagion, the action from the US to backstop depositors, and the sharp moves in bond markets have led to expectations sharply changing. In short the market … Read more

Bank forecasts are rising for gold’s year end price now after the latest SVB banking crisis. Citi raises their Q2 ’23 gold price forecast to USD 1,875/oz (prev. USD 1,800/oz); and Q3 to 1,900/oz (prev. 1,850/oz) and Q4 to 1,950/oz. ANZ have raised their gold price forecast to $2000 for year end and see very … Read more

Going into the meeting STIR markets and economists were united in seeing no change from the meeting in terms of rates. The BoC had also stated in their previous meeting that they were moving to an ‘on hold’ stance. This was the case with rates staying at 4.50%. However, the meeting was always going to … Read more

Friday’s NFP jobs are in key focus this week It is hard to overemphasise how important this NFP jobs print will be on Friday. The steady strong run of US data started around 5 weeks ago with the prior NFP print. The print was one of the biggest surprises in the last 20+ years as … Read more

The RBA think they have reached peak inflation and are citing monthly CPI data suggesting that inflation has peaked. Remember going into the meeting we pointed out that the headline and core inflation readings were still climbing and there was not an obvious sign of peaking. This is significant that the RBA see signs of … Read more

Oil has continually found itself being bought on dips over the last few months and that is due to the following reasons. Chinese demand return The most often cited reason is that Chinese demand for oil is set to gain rapidly this year as it shakes off it’s strict Covid Zero restrictions. According to the … Read more

The RBA meet next week and here are the expectations. Short Term Interest Rate Markets see a 75% chance of a 25bps rate hike. The most recent Reuters poll shows 27 out of 28 economists also forecast the RBA to hike by 25bps to 3.60% next week. So, the expected decision is a 25 bps … Read more

It was around the end of October and the start of November last year that traders started to look at China’s re-opening as an opportunity to get in early. At the time some news channels were focusing on US-China trade tensions, slowing global demand for oil, a struggling property sector and Covid Zero. However, there … Read more