Analysis

From a seasonal perspective stocks tend to do well in April. Over the last 25 years April has been the strongest month for the DAX, and the FTSE, as well as one of the strongest months of the year for the S&P500. So, April tends to be a great month for stocks. See the seasonal … Read more

Short interest is the selling of a security that the seller does not own. It can be strange to think, ‘how can I sell something I don’t own’. However, this is how it works: You borrow shares of a stock from a broker and sell them on the open market. You hold the money you … Read more

Bank of Canada holds as expected at 4.50% Going into the Bank of Canada meeting it was not expected to be an eventful meeting, The Bank of Canada had indicated already they would be holding rates at current levels and there was no significant data prior to the meeting to indicate a shift from that … Read more

The problem for many regional banks in the US has been highlighted recently from a Brownstone research note. In the note the author points out that many US banks are still offering very low interest rates for depositors. Despite the Fed having hiked rates to nearly 5% the national average for banks offering interest rates … Read more

Sometimes very simple technical tools can be very helpful when you are trading, especially when you have a clear idea of the underlying macro picture. Large moves in most markets are generally underpinned by a key macro story revolving around the path of interest rates and where a country is at in its economic cycle. … Read more

SNB take a hawkish hike despite Credit Suisse crisis The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been at the heart of preventing contagion from the Credit Suisse banking crisis. The SNB is providing large amounts of liquidity assistance in Swiss francs and foreign currencies to stabilize markets. In the press conference SNB’s head Thomas Jordan said … Read more

The CORE PCE print is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and for that reason it it extremely important for the Fed as they assess how well the fight against inflation is going. Remember the key narrative at the moment that the Fed is trying to balance banking fears with an inflation fight.If banking fears … Read more

High beta currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar tend to fare badly when markets are risk off. However, the NZD is one of the worst performing currencies during a recession. Bloomberg report that JPMorgan looked back at the last 40 years and found that the NZD tends to perform very badly … Read more

There are two reasons that the Bank of England might hold rates on Thursday. Firstly, due to the banking crises and secondly due to inflation expected to fall rapidly in the UK.The SVB and Credit Suisse crises may, in their own right, cause the Bank of England to err on the side of caution. The … Read more

Inflation The growing view is that the banking crisis from Silicon Vally Bank and Credit Suisse is going to be a big deflationary force. Credit will be much scarcer from here on in and that should help the Fed bring down inflation and across the world. Higher prices are going to be much tougher if … Read more