Sometimes very simple technical tools can be very helpful when you are trading, especially when you have a clear idea of the underlying macro picture. Large moves in most markets are generally underpinned by a key macro story revolving around the path of interest rates and where a country is at in its economic cycle. … Read more
SNB take a hawkish hike despite Credit Suisse crisis The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been at the heart of preventing contagion from the Credit Suisse banking crisis. The SNB is providing large amounts of liquidity assistance in Swiss francs and foreign currencies to stabilize markets. In the press conference SNB’s head Thomas Jordan said … Read more
The CORE PCE print is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and for that reason it it extremely important for the Fed as they assess how well the fight against inflation is going. Remember the key narrative at the moment that the Fed is trying to balance banking fears with an inflation fight.If banking fears … Read more
High beta currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar tend to fare badly when markets are risk off. However, the NZD is one of the worst performing currencies during a recession. Bloomberg report that JPMorgan looked back at the last 40 years and found that the NZD tends to perform very badly … Read more
There are two reasons that the Bank of England might hold rates on Thursday. Firstly, due to the banking crises and secondly due to inflation expected to fall rapidly in the UK.The SVB and Credit Suisse crises may, in their own right, cause the Bank of England to err on the side of caution. The … Read more
Inflation The growing view is that the banking crisis from Silicon Vally Bank and Credit Suisse is going to be a big deflationary force. Credit will be much scarcer from here on in and that should help the Fed bring down inflation and across the world. Higher prices are going to be much tougher if … Read more
Heading into last week’s ECB meeting there was speculation that the ECB’s flagged 50bps rate hike would not go ahead. Why? Well, it was the worries over potential contagion fro European banks over the loss of confidence in Credit Suisse that was circulating strongly on Wednesday last week. However, the SNB secured liquidity from the … Read more
Next week the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all meet. This time last week the SVB crisis was just dropping onto markets and since that time the decision for central banks has just got a lot harder. The fall out from the Credit Suisse crisis on Wednesday just underscored the difficulty … Read more
In the space of just a few days the interest rate pricing for central banks across the world has rapidly fallen due to the SVB crisis. The fears of contagion, the action from the US to backstop depositors, and the sharp moves in bond markets have led to expectations sharply changing. In short the market … Read more
Bank forecasts are rising for gold’s year end price now after the latest SVB banking crisis. Citi raises their Q2 ’23 gold price forecast to USD 1,875/oz (prev. USD 1,800/oz); and Q3 to 1,900/oz (prev. 1,850/oz) and Q4 to 1,950/oz. ANZ have raised their gold price forecast to $2000 for year end and see very … Read more
