Giles Coghlan

The US CPI print on Wednesday at 1330UK time sits in a light calendar week for US data. The CPI print is likely to draw significant attention tomorrow to see how the US is doing in their fight against inflation. Headline inflation expected to fall again. Over the last year headline inflation has been consistently … Read more

To start the year analysts were optimistic about oil prices. China’s recovery from Covid was expected to boost demand, supply was expected to tighten in the second half of the year, and when Russia sent troops into Ukraine the sanctions imposed on them was expected to further reduce oil supply. However, China’s recovery was slower … Read more

On Wednesday July 12th the RBNZ meet at 0300am UK time. In the last RBNZ meeting at the end of May the bank signalled that they have finished hiking interest rates. The RBNZ see inflation returning to 2% by the end of 2025 and this helped fuel a move higher in the AUDNZD as the … Read more

Labour data is viewed through an inflationary/deflationary lens right now. Although the Fed wants to ensure ‘maximum employment’, right now a labour market miss will be welcomed by the Fed as an inflationary fight win. The basic relationship between employment and inflation is explained via the Phillip’s curve below: When employment is ‘tight’ (good) then … Read more

Heading into the last RBA meeting we discussed the potential for some AUDNZD downside on an RBA dovish surprise. However, they are not likely to last. The market was split 50/50 over whether the RBA would hike or not and at the event they paused rates at 4.10%.  However, the major focus was always going … Read more

On Tuesday at 0530 UK time the RBA will be meeting and deciding on whether to hike rates or pause on rates. At the moment the market is pretty much evenly split over what decision the RBA will make. At the end of last week short term interest rate markets saw a 37% chance that … Read more

Central banks worldwide are facing the challenge of elevated core inflation. Last week, the Bank of England raised rates by 50bps to 5% due to persistently high core inflation at 7.1% y/y, triple its target. The ECB is also struggling with core inflation, with the eurozone’s reading at 5.3% y/y. Similarly, the US core inflation … Read more

Take a look at US stocks and the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P500 are all under their all time highs from around late 2021and early 2022. Take a look at those three indices here with the the tops marked in. So, the recent rally in US stocks from the winter of last year has increasing concerns … Read more