The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has generated speculation about the central bank’s potential decisions regarding interest rates. Will they opt for a hike, a pause, or a hold? In this article, we delve into each option and provide insights into the possible outcomes and their implications. Fed Pause: Allowing Time for Economic Impact The most … Read more
In yesterday’s post we looked at the bullish piercing pattern. In today’s post we are looking at the bearish counterpart of the piercing pattern, namely the dark cloud cover pattern. Once again, like the piercing pattern, pay particularly close attention to the opening gap. It is key for seeing exuberant, last minute buyers, before a … Read more
Some candlestick price patterns are well known like shooting stars, hammer reversal bars, and engulfing bars. However, some of the less well known candlestick price patterns are worth noting for reading price charts. This is particularly helpful for when you are a managing a position on the longer term charts. Two patterns we are discussing … Read more
A recent opinion piece in Bloomberg highlighted that the latest budget deal successfully suspended the debt ceiling, averting a potential debt default. However, it also pointed out that this measure does little to address the United States’ long-term fiscal challenges, as US deficits continue to accelerate. Escalating US debts According to the Congressional Budget Office, … Read more
Going into the RBA meeting it was noted that investors should monitor any changes in rate hike expectations between the RBA and RBNZ for any opportunities in the AUDNZD. So, with the RBA hiking by a surprise 25 bps this added a further tailwind to the AUDNZD pair. It should also support dip buyers with … Read more
Heading into the recent OPEC+ meeting, oil prices faced challenges primarily due to supply constraints rather than demand dynamics. In response, Saudi Arabia took proactive measures to address this issue by reducing its supply to 9 million bpd. Additionally, all other OPEC+ producers agreed to extend their earlier cuts until the end of 2024. The … Read more
Calculating the daily expected move of the S&P500 for the month aheadThe VIX is the so called ‘fear index’ that traders use to evaluate how concerned investors are. The VIX is an indicator of 30-day implied volatility from the use of S&P500 index options prices. The way it looks is like this. When S&P500 traders … Read more
With all the talks and drama surrounding the US debt ceiling it is easy to lose sight of what’s going on in terms of US rates. The latest STIR market pricing has a 66% chance that the Fed will be on hold in June. Powell has recently hinted at the possibility of a June hold, … Read more
This week finishes off with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the shape of the USE PCE print. The PCE print refers to the measurement of personal consumption expenditures, which tracks the expenditure on goods and services by US citizens. Since around 2012, the PCE index has become the primary inflation index used by … Read more
Recently there has been an excellent piece on Bloomberg explaining why oil prices have been struggling due to supply issues, rather than demand issues. The logic in the article by Javier Blas has been that sanctions by Western countries on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela have not really worked. Instead the sanctions have helped fuel a … Read more
