The key to understanding FX moves is to have a firm grasp of monetary policy as communicated by central banks. The EURGBP is at the time of writing being pressured lower by GBP strength. The GBP Is strengthening on rising inflation pressures revealed in this week’s data, but whether it can continue remains to be … Read more
Heading into the RBNZ meeting markets were not expecting a change in interest rates. In the event the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 5.5% as expected and noted little changes from the previous meeting. However, the emphasis that the RBNZ did make was the near term risk that inflation measures don’t slow down as much … Read more
Over the month of August there has been a mixed picture for the US economy. Yes, the last NFP showed jobs being added to the US economy at the second slowest rate this year, but the average hourly earnings were still high and the unemployment rate still low. The US jobs market is still ‘tight’ … Read more
That’s what markets want to know. Is the expected 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday the last hike in the current cycle from the Federal Reserve? Ever since the last weaker US CPI print on July 12 market’s have been turning more positive on risk in anticipation of an eventual turning point from the Fed. … Read more
Gold and silver both enjoyed a surge higher on the weak US CPI print from last Wednesday on July 12th as could be anticipated. The headline came in below expectations at 3%, but the core came in below the market’s minimum expectations at 4.8%. So, falling inflation data was the reason for gold’s recent bounce. … Read more
Mark your calendars for Wednesday, July 19! At 07:00 UK time, as market’s may well witness a significant event that could have a notable impact on the GBP; the release of the UK inflation data. Investors, analysts, and traders will be eagerly awaiting this report to gauge the country’s progress in tackling the persistent challenge … Read more
Just under three quarters of all US economic activity comes from consumer spending. US retails sales data contains evidence of around one third of that activity. So, this print can give a big hint at the overall state of the economy. However, the report does have a weakness in that it represents only spending on … Read more
The US CPI print on Wednesday at 1330UK time sits in a light calendar week for US data. The CPI print is likely to draw significant attention tomorrow to see how the US is doing in their fight against inflation. Headline inflation expected to fall again. Over the last year headline inflation has been consistently … Read more
To start the year analysts were optimistic about oil prices. China’s recovery from Covid was expected to boost demand, supply was expected to tighten in the second half of the year, and when Russia sent troops into Ukraine the sanctions imposed on them was expected to further reduce oil supply. However, China’s recovery was slower … Read more
On Wednesday July 12th the RBNZ meet at 0300am UK time. In the last RBNZ meeting at the end of May the bank signalled that they have finished hiking interest rates. The RBNZ see inflation returning to 2% by the end of 2025 and this helped fuel a move higher in the AUDNZD as the … Read more
