In the space of just a few days the interest rate pricing for central banks across the world has rapidly fallen due to the SVB crisis. The fears of contagion, the action from the US to backstop depositors, and the sharp moves in bond markets have led to expectations sharply changing. In short the market … Read more
Bank forecasts are rising for gold’s year end price now after the latest SVB banking crisis. Citi raises their Q2 ’23 gold price forecast to USD 1,875/oz (prev. USD 1,800/oz); and Q3 to 1,900/oz (prev. 1,850/oz) and Q4 to 1,950/oz. ANZ have raised their gold price forecast to $2000 for year end and see very … Read more
Going into the meeting STIR markets and economists were united in seeing no change from the meeting in terms of rates. The BoC had also stated in their previous meeting that they were moving to an ‘on hold’ stance. This was the case with rates staying at 4.50%. However, the meeting was always going to … Read more
Friday’s NFP jobs are in key focus this week It is hard to overemphasise how important this NFP jobs print will be on Friday. The steady strong run of US data started around 5 weeks ago with the prior NFP print. The print was one of the biggest surprises in the last 20+ years as … Read more
The RBA think they have reached peak inflation and are citing monthly CPI data suggesting that inflation has peaked. Remember going into the meeting we pointed out that the headline and core inflation readings were still climbing and there was not an obvious sign of peaking. This is significant that the RBA see signs of … Read more
Oil has continually found itself being bought on dips over the last few months and that is due to the following reasons. Chinese demand return The most often cited reason is that Chinese demand for oil is set to gain rapidly this year as it shakes off it’s strict Covid Zero restrictions. According to the … Read more
The RBA meet next week and here are the expectations. Short Term Interest Rate Markets see a 75% chance of a 25bps rate hike. The most recent Reuters poll shows 27 out of 28 economists also forecast the RBA to hike by 25bps to 3.60% next week. So, the expected decision is a 25 bps … Read more
It was around the end of October and the start of November last year that traders started to look at China’s re-opening as an opportunity to get in early. At the time some news channels were focusing on US-China trade tensions, slowing global demand for oil, a struggling property sector and Covid Zero. However, there … Read more
Key focus this week will be on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI print.Recently there has been a divergence between expectations for US manufacturing and US services as the US has a disjointed post Covid recovery. The last US ISM Non Manufacturing print showed a surprise print higher over 55 for January which was well up … Read more
Around the Autumn of last year the UK bond market was in a crisis. The cost of living, energy price surges, uncoated tax cuts announced by the Gov’t, sent the UK bond market into free fall as investors couldn’t sell UK debt quick enough. With interest rates looking like they were about to soar it … Read more
