GILES COGHLAN

GILES COGHLAN

RBNZ – Keeping a hawkish bias

by
In the last RBNZ meeting on February 22 markets were expecting a 50 bps rate hike. The surge in inflation had shown some signs of topping with January’s print coming in the same aster prior.
The QoQ reading was at 1.4% for January which was at the lower end of the recent range.
However, the RBNZ did not take comfort from this and hiked by 50bps (as expected) and maintained its views for a terminal rate of 5.50%. The committee considered a hike of 75 bps and this was noted as a potential catalyst for sending AUDNZD lower prior to the event. The recent impact of Cyclone Gabrielle was seen as unlikely to impact the medium term monetary policy outlook although some short term prices spikes were expected as a direct impact in the near term.

Inflation still too high

The recent pullback in inflation pressures were noted, but the RBNZ still considered core consumer inflation too high. The annual CPI projection was therefore revised higher to 4.2% for March 2024, which was down from the previous of 3.8%.

The takeaway

The RBNZ are not slowing from their interest rate hiking cycle in contrast to the speculation before the meeting. This allowed the NZD to strengthen against the AUD immediately out of the meeting sending the AUDNZD lower,
Going forward inflation data will be key and any big jumps lower in NZD inflation data will allow sudden weakness to creep into the NZD. This would be the best opportunity for short term traders to look out for. Next NZD inflation data is out on April 19th and Food inflation on March 12th. Another opportunity for NZD weakness would be if the labour market shows signs of loosening (i.e job losses). Near term AUDNZD selling makes sense, but watch events for from the RBA closely

52 thoughts on “RBNZ – Keeping a hawkish bias”

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  38. The Heart Of The Internet

    The Heart Of The Internet

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    We have 5 sections each with 3 paragraphs (15 total). We need to add an additional section after
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    —

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    —

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    Baseline, 1‑month follow‑up, 3‑month follow‑up). Participants were randomly assigned to
    either the Ordered or Not Ordered group using a computer‑generated
    randomization sequence.

    —

    Procedure

    Participants in the Ordered condition received instructions
    to complete each survey section sequentially, following the exact order presented on the screen (e.g.,
    Demographics → Personality → Health). In contrast, participants in the Not
    Ordered condition were free to navigate through the
    sections at will. All surveys were administered via a secure online platform.

    At each time point, participants completed the same battery
    of questionnaires and were compensated with a $20 gift card.
    Reminder emails were sent 48 hours before each scheduled survey completion.

    —

    Measures

    Measure Description

    Demographics Age, gender, education, marital status, income

    Personality Big Five Inventory (BFI) – 44 items
    measuring Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism

    Self‑Efficacy General Self‑Efficacy Scale (GSE) – 10 items assessing confidence in handling tasks

    —

    Sample Size and Power

    Effect size target: Small-to-medium \(d = 0.3\)

    Alpha: 0.05

    Power: 0.80

    Required per group: ~175 participants (Cohen’s d, two‑sample t‑test)

    Total sample: ≥350 (allowing for attrition → recruit 400–450)

    Recruitment Strategy

    Channel Approach

    Online panels (e.g., MTurk, Prolific) Target demographic filters;
    pay $3–$5 per participant

    Social media ads Use interest targeting: “personal development,” “wellness”

    Community forums & newsletters Post calls to action with brief description and compensation

    Local universities Offer course credit or small stipend

    —

    Ethical Considerations

    IRB Approval: Submit study protocol, consent forms, data handling plan.

    Informed Consent: Clearly state purpose, duration (~15 min), voluntary nature, withdrawal rights, confidentiality.

    Data Security: Store encrypted files; limit access to research
    team only.

    Deception: Not applicable; participants are fully aware of survey content.

    Debriefing: Provide a summary of study aims and contact
    information for questions.

    Timeline

    Phase Duration

    IRB submission & approval 2 weeks

    Survey creation & pilot testing 1 week

    Recruitment & data collection 4 weeks

    Data cleaning & analysis 2 weeks

    Report writing & dissemination 3 weeks

    —

    Budget

    Participant compensation: $10 × 200 = $2,000

    Survey platform subscription (Qualtrics or similar): $500

    Software licenses (SPSS/Stata): $1,200

    Miscellaneous (printing, recruitment ads): $300

    Total Estimated Cost: ~$4,000

    Ethical Considerations

    Obtain Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval prior to study commencement.

    Ensure participants are fully informed about the nature of the tasks and
    their right to withdraw at any time without penalty.

    Protect participant data in compliance with HIPAA regulations.

    Expected Outcomes & Implications

    We anticipate that:

    Cognitive Load will increase during high-precision tasks, evidenced by
    higher subjective ratings and greater physiological arousal.

    Performance may decline under high cognitive load, particularly for less experienced clinicians.

    Experience level will moderate the impact of cognitive load on performance.

    These findings could inform:

    Training programs, emphasizing strategies to manage cognitive load during complex procedures.

    Design of clinical workflows and support systems that mitigate
    unnecessary cognitive demands (e.g., better tool ergonomics,
    decision-support prompts).

    Policy recommendations for scheduling and staffing in settings requiring high precision.

    7. Methodological Considerations and Limitations

    Simulation vs. Real Clinical Settings: While simulations provide
    control and safety, they may not fully capture the unpredictability of real
    patient interactions.

    Observer Effect on EEG Data: The presence of observers or recording equipment could influence participants’ neural activity.

    Generalizability Across Specialties: Findings from a single
    procedural domain (e.g., laparoscopic surgery) may not translate directly to other fields requiring precision.

    Despite these limitations, the proposed integrative approach offers a robust framework for understanding and enhancing high‑precision work in critical contexts.

    8. Conclusion

    High‑precision work across diverse domains demands
    meticulous attention to detail, rigorous error management, and sustained cognitive engagement.
    By combining traditional performance metrics with advanced neurocognitive assessments—such as EEG-derived ERP analyses—we can attain a richer,
    multidimensional understanding of how individuals navigate the demands of precise tasks.
    This holistic insight will inform the design of better training programs, support systems, and tools
    that help professionals perform at their best while minimizing risks to themselves,
    colleagues, and society at large.

    —

    Prepared by: Your Name

    Title/Position:

    Organization:

    —

    Appendices

    Appendix A: Sample EEG Protocol for ERP Recording

    Appendix B: Data Analysis Pipeline (EEGLAB &
    FieldTrip)

    Appendix C: Suggested Training Modules Based on ERP Findings

    —

    End of Brief.

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