The Power of Patience: Why Waiting for a Strong Calendar Deviation Matters in Trading
Article published on March 14th, 2025 3:45AM UK Time
It’s no secret—doing nothing is hard. As traders, we’re wired for action. A study published in Science revealed that many people find being alone with their thoughts so unbearable that they would rather endure electric shocks than sit idle. One participant in the study even administered 190 shocks to himself just to avoid doing nothing.
This preference for action makes sense in many aspects of life, where effort and initiative often yield positive results. However, in trading, this impulse to “do something” can be costly. Impulsive trades—driven by boredom, overconfidence, or a desire to stay active—often lead to losses that could have been avoided. The key to long-term trading success is knowing when to act and when to wait.
Why Waiting Pays Off in Trading
Jack Schwager, author of Market Wizards, interviewed some of the world’s top traders to uncover what sets them apart. One of the key takeaways? Patience. The best traders don’t chase every market move—they wait for high-probability setups.
Schwager explains that traders often struggle to wait because doing nothing “requires the patience of a saint.” Even those with a well-defined methodology can feel the urge to take suboptimal trades just to satisfy the need for action. But great traders know that sitting on their hands until the right opportunity emerges is often the best strategy.
One of the clearest applications of this principle is waiting for a strong calendar deviation before entering the market. Economic events and data releases move markets, but not all of them create meaningful trading opportunities. Jumping into a trade before a significant deviation from expectations is confirmed can lead to unnecessary risks and choppy price action.
Why Calendar Deviations Matter
Economic data releases—such as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI, GDP, and central bank rate decisions—have a significant impact on markets. However, the magnitude of market reaction depends on how much the actual data deviates from expectations.
- Small deviations: Markets often absorb minor surprises without major volatility. Trading on these can lead to getting caught in false moves.
- Strong deviations: When data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the market has a clear catalyst, providing a better probability for a strong, sustained move.
For example, if U.S. CPI comes in only 0.1% above expectations, the market reaction might be muted. However, if inflation prints 0.3% above maximum expectations, the probability of a meaningful dollar rally increases significantly. Entering a trade before confirming a strong deviation increases the likelihood of whipsaw price action and premature stop-outs.
Final Thoughts: The Market Rewards Patience
In markets, every trade involves capital risk. When there is no strong calendar deviation or clear catalyst, sitting on your hands is often the best move. The best traders aren’t the ones who trade the most—they’re the ones who trade when the odds are in their favor.
Waiting for strong deviations before entering the market minimizes risk, increases the probability of a favorable outcome, and prevents unnecessary drawdowns. Sometimes, doing nothing is the most powerful trading strategy.
